Fubara’s support base wanes ahead of 11-day return

As Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State prepares to return to the Government House, Port Harcourt, on September 18, there are strong indications that his support base has waned with some allies saying he will return as a lame duck.

Since the declaration of an emergency rule on the state and suspension of the governor by President Bola Tinubu on March 18, 2025, following political tensions and the alleged attack on oil facilities by suspected militants, not much has been heard from the embattled governor.

After his reconciliation with his political godfather and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, all support groups for the two political leaders had collapsed.

Two groups in particular, the ‘Simplified Family’, loyal to Fubara, and that of the FCT minister known as the ‘Wikematics’ have been dissolved.

There were pockets of speculation that the State Administrator, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas (retd) was lobbying for an extension of the emergency rule, a claim his media aide, Hector Igbikiowubo, dismissed as false.

Igbikiowubo, during a chat, said his principal remained committed to leaving office when his tenure ends, but emphasised the need to complete projects initiated under his watch.

He noted that the administrator had been touring project sites to ensure contractors were working according to specifications.

He said, “When you have a construction project ongoing and the contractor has been mobilised, there is a limit to how much you can push. You can only hope that the project proceeds apace. You can’t expect that because of an emergency situation they will cut corners to finish when the reality dictates otherwise.

“We are firmly committed to exiting office, which is why the National Assembly gave approval for RSIEC to proceed with the local government elections to restore democracy at that level.”

Fubara loses hold on power

With the LG elections concluded, the governor has lost grip of the grass roots.

Of the 23 LGAs in the state, the APC won 20, including Fubara Opobo-Nkoro LGA, while the PDP won only three, with Wike retaining his Obio/Akpor LGA.

However, it is said that all those who emerged winners in both the APC and PDP are loyalists of Wike.

The state House of Assembly, is led by the Speaker, Martin Amaewhule, a loyalist and kinsman of the FCT minister.

THE PRIME NEWS gathered that Fubara, who boycotted the LG elections, had yet to return from his trip abroad.

On the preparations for the governor’s return to office, his media aide, Jerry Omatsogunwa, said residents were excited.

Omatsogunwa stated, “It is about Rivers people. Rivers people are excited. You know a man that has shown them that he loves the entire state and such things happen, it is natural that now that the date is very close, Rivers’ people are happy that he will soon come and complete his good works.

“It has nothing to do with me, but Rivers people in general are expectant and ready to welcome their most loved governor because they are the ultimate beneficiaries of the projects. So they are waiting for him to come back and continue from where he stopped.”

‘Governor returning as a puppet’

Meanwhile, an elder statesman and Convener of the Coalition of Rivers State Leaders of Thought, High Chief Sunnie Chukumele, said Fubara would no longer wield the influence of a governor upon his return.

Chukumele also described the just-concluded council election as a charade, even as he argued that Wike’s grip on the state was only temporary.

He said, “He is coming back as a puppet and Rivers State people are not prepared for a puppet. Rivers people are not happy.

“How many people came out to vote in the council election? It was nothing short of a boycott. We are disappointed. If they lift the so-called emergency rule and he comes back now, Martin Amaewhule and Nyesom Wike will still dictate the tune. But in 2027, Rivers people will elect their own governor.”

A prominent politician in the state, who asked not to be named, said it would be better for Fubara to resign than return to face humiliation.

He said, “What the governor can do now is, when he is recalled, he should resume. But the following day, to save his face, he should address Rivers people and then resign from office.”

A member of the academia and supporter of the suspended governor, Prof. Ken Nweke, also spoke of the mixed feelings surrounding Fubara’s return.

Nweke, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, told in a telephone interview that the governor might find it difficult to assert authority.

He said, “Coming back to preside over a state where he cannot even identify who is in charge of the local governments, yet he is expected to take security decisions and give direction for the grassroots system, creates a disconnect. In a way, what this portends is that you have a governor coming into the government house when the food has already been cooked at the grassroots.”

The university don added that the relationship between Fubara and the newly elected local government chairmen could be strained.

According to him, “He (Fubara) may not be able to assert himself or give directives that will ensure the protection and quality of life ordinarily expected of a governor. Anticipating what could happen in that regard gives many people a sense of hopelessness — that the man they once knew as formidable in pursuing the best for the state may no longer have the freedom to do so.”

Nweke continued, “So, people are not likely to see the governor take his own decisions. A man who wanted to write his name in gold now faces doubt as to whether he can live up to expectations. There are a lot of mixed feelings, even among us who were his followers, because our hopes have been dashed completely. It feels like he is returning without followership.”

He argued that the governor’s earlier admission that his spirit had left the Government House remained telling.

He said, “There is no certainty now. With godfatherism still in place and all structures taken off his hands, will he even have the zeal? Judging from his own words — ‘do you know if I’m interested in going back here?’ — and his admission that his spirit had left, it seems what Rivers people may see is only his physical presence in Government House. Even with reconciliation, he may not give his best anymore because he appears to have been completely conquered.”

Meanwhile, an elder statesman and member of the Rivers State Elders Council, Chief Asukewe Ikoawaju, expressed doubts about Governor Fubara’s ability to fulfil his campaign promises amid the political crisis in the state.

He likened the governor’s expected return to “a baby who must first crawl before learning to walk,” and criticised FCT Minister Nyesom Wike for plunging Rivers into “an avoidable web of confusion,” arguing that Fubara had lost the support of both his loyalists and the people.

Ikoawaju stressed that governance was about continuity, noting that six months away from power was enough to derail an administration’s vision. He faulted the role of the Sole Administrator, accusing him of exceeding his mandate, and described the crisis as a personal family feud between Wike and Fubara that had been imposed on the state. “Any leader who cannot solve his family problem is not worth being a leader,” he said.

He also criticised the appointment of someone outside Rivers to head the state electoral body, insisting that state elections must be managed in line with the Constitution. On whether Fubara would return as a puppet, Ikoawaju said the governor had already lost grip of his supporters and the confidence of Rivers people. “When the people needed him, he was not there. Both the Governor and the former Governor know what they want to do with Rivers people. But come 2027, we will not keep quiet. We will not allow what we have seen today to happen again,” he vowed.